347 NCAA Division I
basketball teams at the start of the season were all vying for a spot in the
big dance. It seems like even as selection Sunday quickly approaches that just
that many have a chance and or a solid reason as to why they should be in the tournament.
So what to do with the
empty bracket? Well, I am certainly not telling you how to fill out your
bracket. You certainly don’t want my advice as my bracket historically ends up
looking like a hot mess as the tournament advances through the sweet 16. It
seems intuition and gut feelings work best in making predictions where reason,
statistics, and logic seem to be useless.
What I am talking about
is more of the question who should even be in the tournament. You can’t even
think about who will win the head to head matchups if you don’t know who’s in
the tournament. Quite frankly none of the big name teams have really shown that
they deserve to be in this year. No team has really earned the number one seed.
So how should they decide? I think that they should give all the teams in the
division a number and use a random number generator to pick what teams will
play.
Now, that is just my
suggestion and as interesting as that would be, I don’t think they will decide
it that way this year. They will continue with the auto bids and the committee
selection process like they have done in years past.
This year’s tournament
for certain will be very interesting. There are many predictions as to who will
make the tournament and they all show that there will be several new faces that
will be in as well as some familiar ones who will not. In my opinion this will
be the first year that truly anyone in the bracket could will it all. There
really is no powerhouse team that has played unbelievably well. All of the
teams have that I think will be in have proved that they can win but, they have
also proven that they are all beatable.
To me this uncertainty
makes it more exciting. I love underdogs and if you have listened to my
football predictions on HawkTalk you know how much faith I have in major
upsets. I we could select the better team just by paper stats they would not
need to play the game.
There also are some
strong teams in the field that I expect to perform well and here are my
predations as to who will be in. To me it is safe to say that Kansas and
Villanova with the best records of 28-4, Virginia, Oregon, Xavier, Miami, Oklahoma,
North Carolina, Michigan State, West Virginia, Indiana, and yes even Kentucky
at 23- 8 and Duke at 23-10 will all make the tournament. To me all but the
teams listed with the exception of Kentucky and Duke have all earned a spot in
the tournament. While this has not been the best year for powerhouse teams all
of these I expect to be 5 seeds or above simply on schedule toughness and
overall record.
Kansas especially has
played the best of any team all season beating UCLA, Vanderbilt, Oklahoma,
Kansas State, among others. As of know they are undoubtedly the best team with tournament
hopes. They have a strong starting crew Perry Ellis who leads the team
averaging almost 17 points per game. Alongside him are Frank Mason III, Wayne Selden
Jr., Devonte’ Graham, and the rest of the team.
Kentucky and Duke are
another issue. I do not think that either of these teams has truly earned a
spot in the tournament. However I do believe that they will be in the round of
64 based only off of reputation and toughness of schedule. Those two getting in
will have little to do with their on-court performance this year. I do not
expect them to get out of the second round. They are simply not that strong of
teams.
Based on the teams rich
history I think that they will be a 5 seed or better which is outrageous but
will probably be true. However bot have lost to teams that a top caliber team shouldn’t
have. Duke lost to UNC, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, and Louisville. Kentucky lost
to Texas A&M, Tennessee, and Vanderbilt.
On the other hand,
Monmouth at 27-7 and Valparaiso at 26-6 should both be in the tournament. They
have both played extremely well this season in their respective conferences.
Monmouth has played
well beating teams like Notre Dame, Dayton, UCLA, and Georgetown. However their
one inhibiting factor is that they lost Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference final game to Iona who now has the auto
bid. Monmouth has a strong point leader with Justin Robinson leading the team
with almost 20 points per game. They also have strong defensive game. As a team
they average 15 steals and 41 rebounds per game. As a whole this team if they
are able to sneak in has a strong chance to perform well on the big stage.
Valparaiso also has had
an impressive season but sits in a worse spot than Monmouth. They have played
well but have not really beaten any big name teams other than Missouri State.
As a solid basketball team they deserve a chance at the big dance based on
overall record eliminating the toughness of schedule factor. They similarly
lost in overtime for the horizon league championship. Valpo will make it to the
tournament but I simply do not think they are strong enough to win it all.
Overall this March Madness
will be the most bizarre one that we have ever seen. It will full of more than
its share of upsets. I expect this to be the year where the underdogs out
preform the teams we have been accustomed to seeing in the tournament. For my
finial prediction I am really going out on a limb and hopefully it won’t break.
Personally I love the underdogs. My
finial prediction is that if Monmouth makes the tournament, that they upset
everyone and win it all.
Yes I said it. I
predict Monmouth as the National Champions. You can call me crazy but as I said
earlier, logic is useless for predictions like this. Anyone can win and that’s why
they play the game. You have to go with your gut and mine tells me that Monmouth
takes home the trophy.
-Joe Kubicki
